A, your hypothesis is looking likely. This morning the ice was again not flat, but this time I could see that it wasn't uniform. There was a bump in the middle which looked 'cloudier' than the surrounding ice. Of course, that begs the question of why, in a shallow container with the area of a sheet of foolscap paper, any part of the water in it would freeze ahead of the rest.
Anyway I can't wait to be rid of this freezing weather; not only does the water freeze in the tray but the plastic tray itself gets so brittle that this morning it smashed when I tried to get the ice out.